Earthquake Frequency To Increase In 2018?

In August 2017, an article was published suggesting a possible increase in the frequency of large earthquakes starting 2018. Authors Rebecca Bendick and Roger Bilham from the University of Montana analyzed data from Magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes since the 1900s. Their findings were that peak earthquake activity coincided with a periodic slowing of the earth’s rotation.

More earthquake activity in the next 5 years?

Magnitude 7+ earthquakes are observed to have a random distribution across time, though clusters of strong quakes do occur. In 2010, the Earth experienced a cluster of 23 M7+ quakes. Succeeding years have seen fewer major quakes, with 2017 only having 7. The model by Bendick and Bilham proposes that these clusters have a correlation with the periodic slowing.

The gradual slowing of the earth’s rotation is caused by the gravitational pull of the moon. However, scientists are unsure of what causes the periodic slowing. It is often attributed to the behavior of the earth’s core. When the slowing occurs, the momentum of the moving crust carries it forward in a similar effect to hitting the brakes in a car. When this happens, 2.8×10¹⁹ tons of material crash into each other. It is estimated to take up to 5 years for the deceleration to propagate through the rock, potentially causing an increase in earthquakes where the faults push against each other. According to research, 2017 is the 6th year of this periodic deceleration. This means that the Earth could potentially experience between a 30% to 300% increase in earthquake activity for the next 5 years.

Some geologists disagree, however. John Callan of GNS Science has previously stated that the paper “appears to be a conference presentation and very preliminary rather than peer-reviewed research.” He explains how correlation between natural phenomena can easily be found if one searches for them. In addition, while Bendick and Bilham’s model suggests an increase in frequency, it does not predict when and where the earthquakes will strike. Data estimates, however, that fault lines closer to the Equator are at a greater risk. The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) has recorded at least 16 earthquakes since January 1 2018.